Donald J. Trump's attacks on Canada resulted in a shift of the federal election's dynamics, elevating a new Liberal leader who goes head-on against the U.S. president.
According to an April 2 Nanos Research survey, the Liberals lead in voter intentions with 45.1 per cent while the Conservatives trail at 37.2 per cent. It's a dramatic turn of fortune for the Liberals which trailed the Conservatives by almost 20 percentage points in October 2024.
Trump's economic policies have helped Mark Carney, as tariffs were introduced on vehicles and auto parts from Canada, launched duties on softwood lumber, and globally, erased trillions of dollars in wealth from the stock markets.
Dimitry Anastakis, a historian with the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto, said the central question in this election is who will be best able to defend Canada’s interests.
“This is madness what Trump is doing, launching these attacks on Canada, these suggestions, you know, wanting to annex the country. It’s just mind-bogglingly stupid,” Anastakis said.
He said this changed the dynamic and turned it in Carney’s favour, whereas federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre shares a more “Trump adjacent rhetoric.”
“This doesn’t help him at a time when 80 or 90 per cent of Canadians are pretty much on board with the idea of fighting back against Trump,” Anastakis said.
He said it made sense for Carney to call a snap election.
Anastakis said Canada was in the last year of the 2021 mandate, and from Carney’s perspective, he is seeking a new one.
“He’s calling this election not only because he needs a seat in the parliament, which you know, he could have probably done in a by-election, but I think he also wants to take advantage of the fact that there is a lot of public recognition of him,” he said.
Anastakis said there is a lot of turmoil in the political world currently and he feels strongly that Carney needs to do this.
He said the Conservatives are better prepared for this election than the Liberals, considering they have more candidates nominated.
“There are real-world events that really do have an impact upon people who are now seriously thinking about voting, and you know, advanced polls are going to be open soon. This election is going to be over in four and a half weeks,” Anastakis said.
He said that as the NDP collapses, voters seem to appreciate the two-party race between the Conservatives and the Liberals.
“I think it’s going to be close. It’s going to be a dog fight,” Anastakis said.
He said Carney has much more of an international profile in terms of his career as compared to Poilievre.
“He’s an economist by trade, and he was the governor of the Bank of Canada during the Great Recession. He was also the governor of the Bank of England and has a pretty amazing record as an international banker,” Anastakis said.
He said Carney also worked at Goldman Sachs and has experience dealing with crises, as he also dealt with Brexit when he was in the U.K.
Anastakis said he thinks Canadians feel Carney would be good in the economic crisis that Canada is facing.
He said it's interesting how Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a close ally to Poilievre, told the U.S. administration to pause tariffs because it was boosting Carney and was hurting her preferred candidate.
“The story alone is really quite disconcerting because it is kind of amazing to see a provincial premier ... giving advice to the administration not based on what’s best for Canadians but based on what she thinks is best for the outcome of the election,” Anastakis said.
He said this can easily be contrasted with Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who is 100 per cent locked in on a “Team Canada approach” and has not taken any sides in the federal election.
Allan Tupper, Professor Emeritus at the Department of Political Science at the University of British Columbia, said that although polls have some general credibility, people need to remember they might not always come true.
“I think it is well known, Justin Trudeau, former prime minister for 10 years, was very unpopular and Conservatives had a substantial lead in the polls and polls are polls,” Tupper said.
He said this election is directly affected by President Donald J. Trump’s administration across the borders.
“He’s raised an extraordinarily aggressive position towards this country. He insulted our prime minister. He’s insulted Canadians in many ways, and he has evoked a whole new set of issues,” Tupper said.
The political science professor said Trump has re-engaged a sense of nationalism that has been very different and rooted in an “anti-Americanism."
He said that since those events have occurred, the election has transformed itself.
“These Liberals have gone way up in the polls, and it’s basically a dead heat between the Conservatives and the Liberals. Mark Carney has changed that,” Tupper said.
He said Carney comes with a platform stressing his capacity and experience in international negotiations, and “he’ll put Trump in his place.”
Tupper said competition between both parties is tight because Carney, despite his financial experience, is “untested politically,” and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been around politics for about 20 years, even though he is quite youthful.
He said the number of seats available in the House of Commons shifts regularly to match population shifts.
“This year, this parliament, I should say this election, will give three more seats to Alberta and, as memory serves me, one more to Ontario, but the Alberta seats could be very significant,” Tupper said.
He said it is a complex map, as there are developments in Quebec. This gives the Liberals strength there, as there has been a weakening of the Bloc Québécois, Tupper said.
He said there is truth to the fact that Alberta is a dominant province whose seats are generally dominated by the Conservative party, which has been the pattern for a long time.
“It looks like it’s [Bloc Québécois] weakening because Trump has actually enhanced national unity because the Québécois have become very focused on Canada and not on Quebec, and that has boosted the Liberals there,” he said.
Tupper said the 905 area is the one to watch out for, as it is very competitive considering some key parties have minimal presence in some of these areas.
The 905 area covers the Greater Toronto Area and the Golden Horseshoe.
Tupper said he thinks Carney has an interesting approach, unlike other people, and does not always jump every time someone says something in Washington.
“He’s [Carney] basically drawn a line in the sand and said, look, you want to insult our institutions, our people, our government, and we’re not a 51st state,” Tupper said.
He said he believes the crucial question for all the federal leaders in our election is how far they’re going to distance Canada from the United States and how far they’re going to move towards diversifying the Canadian economy.
“How far the government is going to proceed with mapping out independent defence policies, for example. So, that’s really the large question, when push comes to shove, is the rhetoric going to become a reality?” Tupper said.
