The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party (PC) held a 13-point lead over the Ontario Liberals in the latest Nanos Research poll ahead of the 2025 provincial election.
The survey shows the Liberals cut the lead by four per cent from an earlier survey conducted eight days earlier.
The survey, conducted for CTV News, shows the PCs at 47.8 per cent among decided voters, well ahead of the Liberals at 26.2 per cent. The Ontario NDP trails with 15.4 per cent, while the Green Party sits at 6.4 per cent. Other parties account for 1.9 per cent of decided voters.
Support for the PCs is strongest in the Greater Toronto Area with 55.2 per cent and Northern and Eastern Ontario with 48.5 per cent. In contrast, the Liberals are performing best in Toronto with 34.4 per cent and in the GTA with 33.6 per cent.
The NDP’s strongest support is in the Golden West with 21.3 per cent and in Toronto with 19.6 per cent, while the Green Party has its highest backing in Southwest/Central Ontario with 7.5 per cent.
The PCs maintain a significant lead among men with 59.3 per cent compared to women with 36 per cent. Among age groups, the PCs lead among voters aged 35 to 54 with 51.2 per cent and those 55 and older with 47 per cent. The Liberals see their strongest support among women with 36.6 per cent and voters 55 and older with 33.6 per cent. The NDP performs best among younger voters aged 18 to 34 with 23 per cent, while Green support remains consistent across demographics at around 3-6 per cent.
When asked who they would prefer as Ontario's next premier, 42.7 per cent of those surveyed selected PC Leader Doug Ford, putting him well ahead of Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie at 25.2 per cent. NDP Leader Marit Stiles polled at 13.7 per cent, while Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner received 6.4 per cent support. 6.2 per cent of respondents were unsure and 4.6 per cent said they preferred none of the above.
Regionally, Ford’s support is highest in Southwest/Central Ontario with 45.4 per cent and Northern and Eastern Ontario with 45.3 per cent. Crombie has the most support in Toronto with 28.5 per cent and has a strong backing around the GTA with 27.1 per cent. Stiles has the highest support in Toronto, 16.6 per cent, while Schreiner polls strongest in the Golden West, with 9.6 per cent.
The Nanos Research poll is based on a rolling three-night average of 900 interviews until Feb. 26, 2025, half interviewed by phone, and the other half were surveyed online. The data was weighted by age and gender according to the latest Canadian census.
